2021 Sea level rise projections by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change for Coastal Design

 

Introduction

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) delayed its normal six-year publication cycle of climate assessments after its Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) was published in 2013 [1] because there was an explosion of research on climate change that needed to be evaluated. IPCC’s full Sixth Assessment Report (AR6) will be published in 2022. However, in August 2021, IPCC published the portion of AR6 [2] that deals with the physical basis for climate change including sea level rise. IPCC [2] was supported by updated projections of the contributions of Antarctica [3] and Greenland (The Ice Sheet Mass Balance Inter-Exercise 2020) to sea level rise. IPCC [2] has been per reviewed extensively with the first draft receiving comments from 750 reviewers and the second draft from 1279 peer reviewers [4]. IPCC [1] used temperatures that were projected for 2100 based on Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) that describe different climate-scenario futures. Scenario labelling is based on possible radiative forcing values by 2100. For example, RCP1.9 and RCP8.5 are scenarios with radiative forcing values in 2100 of 1.9 and 8.5 watts/m2 respectively. Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSPs) are the climate-scenario futures used in IPCC (2021a), but except for some minor differences relating to climate, SSPs are the same as RCPs. They were the same for sea level rise projections. Table 1 shows IPCC [2] projections to 2100 relative to sea level in 1995-2014. Projections are mean rises with parenthetical numbers representing standard deviations from the means (Table 1).


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